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Great Wall Motor (601633) Quarterly Review: ASP continues to improve leading potential significantly


Great Wall Motor (601633) Quarterly Review: ASP continues to improve leading potential significantly
Matters: The company released the third quarter report of 2019: the first three quarters achieved operating income of 625.800 million, a year -6.1%; net profit attributable to mother 29.200 million, a year -25.7%; budget benefit 0.32 yuan, net assets 5.81 yuan. Ping An’s view: Gross profit margin increased month-on-month, and ASP of bicycles continued to increase.The first three quarters of 2019 achieved revenue of 625.8 ‰, at least -6.1%.Third quarter revenue 212.0 million yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.0%, bike ASP9.20,000 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2600 yuan, the high-price models WEY and F7 accounted for almost the same month-on-month ratio, and it is estimated that it was mainly caused by the switch between the national five and national six models and the increase in prices.Gross profit margin for the third quarter 18.6%, an increase of 2 per year.Nine averages, an increase of 2 from the previous quarter.The six averages are mainly due to the renewal of the national five and six model switching preferences.Sales and management expense ratio in the third quarter 5.7% per year -2.7 averages, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.1 unit, in which the sales expense ratio and financial expense ratio decreased slightly. The sales volume surpassed the industry, the discount rate was stable and controllable, and the profit 四川耍耍网 of bicycles recovered.In the third quarter, the company’s vehicle sales reached 23.10,000 vehicles (+12 a year.4%), surpassing the industry growth rate. In terms of terminal concessions, terminal concessions remained at a relatively small and stable level in the third quarter, and bicycle profit returned to zero.About 6 million (1Q 0.270,000 yuan, 2Q 0.350,000 yuan), as the industry gradually warms up, the company’s terminal sales are also expected to increase, alleviate inventory pressure levels, and bicycle profit is expected to continue to increase. New energy vehicles continue to make efforts, and the new platform is worth looking forward to.As we initially predicted, the company’s sales volume in 2019 is expected to continue to outperform the industry, and with the recovery of the industry, bicycle profits will gradually 天津夜网 increase every quarter.The launch of the pickup 3Q new car opens the way to expand its share. In 2020, two new SUVs (small + compact) on the new platform will be launched to further enhance the competitiveness of the product. New energy vehicle parts and vehicles will be launched at the same time. The company’s sales are expected to break through.It opens up the space for improvement, and the potential of the faucet is significant. Earnings forecast and investment suggestions: corporate system reform + multi-category strategy + new product cycle is gradually fulfilled, optimistic about future development.Due to the higher-than-expected 3Q performance, the performance forecast is raised, and the EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.55, 0.94, 1.27 yuan (expected performance forecast EPS is 0.53, 0.94, 1.27 yuan), maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk reminders: 1) The passenger car market is less than expected risk. Due to the industry overdraft effect in the passenger car industry, there is still a risk that the industry growth rate is less than expected.2) SUV competition intensifies the risk of deterioration. The price of common brand SUVs has dropped, and models have been launched intensively, which may cause pressure on SUVs ranging from 100,000 to 150,000 US dollars.3) The risk of non-compliance with double points, the company’s new energy started late. Due to the product structure, the pressure of fuel consumption points reached the standard, and the double points have the risk of not meeting the standards.