Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Rising Opposition to Industry Giants
Event: On October 14, the company released the first three quarters of 2019 performance forecast, realizing net profit attributable to mothers9.
500 million US dollars, an annual increase of 46% -53%; that is, the third quarter of a single quarter realized net profit attributable to mother.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 19% -33% in ten years.
Performance is in line with our expectations.
Comments: In the third quarter of 2019, PDH has high efficiency and the C3 industry chain is 合肥夜网 profitable.
In 2019Q3, benefiting from the downturn in prices, PDH’s profit surged. According to the industry data we observed, the average price difference of PDH in 2019Q3 was 1303 yuan / ton higher than that in 2019Q2.The average price difference of Poly Pounds was +801 yuan / ton.
However, the price difference between acrylic acid and ester narrowed. The average price difference between acrylic acid was -731 yuan / ton, and the average price difference between butyl acrylate and acid was -382 yuan / ton.
In the overall C3 sector, the company’s profit has slightly expanded.
We believe that light hydrocarbon fractures have a cost advantage in several intervening preparation pathways.
Since 2019, in the context of the pressure of naphtha cracking and coal-based prefix observations, the PDH spread in August has still reached a new high since 2015.
The company currently has two sets of a total of 90 inches of PDH, 45 inches of PP, 45 inches of crystals and 48 inches of acrylate, 15 inches of SAP production capacity, complete supporting C3 industry chain, significant integration cost advantages.
We expect the company’s existing C3 business to contribute 1.3 to 1.4 billion yuan / year of profit for stability, and the estimated PE based on the current market value is estimated to be 10 times.
The C2 project was put into production and created a giant of justice.
The cost advantage of the crude oil cracking to ethylene route is outstanding.
At present, the minimum price of MB in the United States is less than 150 US dollars / ton. According to this price, even the current alternative polyethylene price is subdivided into a profit space of at least 2,000 yuan / ton.
The company’s biggest highlight in the medium and long term is the high growth of the 250-mm extended split ethylene project, with a volume equivalent to one quarter of Sinopec’s existing ethylene volume.
At present, the company’s Lianyungang petrochemical project and the company’s US project are steadily advancing.
Sino-US trade friction reached a phased agreement to boost consensus.
The large trade in energy and agricultural products is in the interest of China and the United States.
The forthcoming Sino-US agreement reached a phase, which includes China’s purchase of US $ 40-50 billion worth of US agricultural products, and the purchase of energy products can be expected later.
First-class imports are the most effective varieties of imported energy products, and satellite petrochemical subdivision and splitting projects have led their peers.
Maintain profit forecast and maintain “Buy” rating.
We maintain the company’s EPS for 2019-2021.
29 yuan and 1.
46 yuan and 3.
47 yuan, 天津夜网 the current sustainable corresponding PE is 11/10/4 times.
Based on the company’s optimistic view on the growth of its ethylene projects, we maintain a “Buy” rating and target price of 18.